Tampa Bay Market Report · May 2026

Five Counties, Five Different Markets: What the May 2026 Numbers Really Say

By Juan Alcalá · Tru Living Group · ThatTampaLife · Published June 16, 2026

The May numbers are in, and I can already hear the Crash Callers warming up their keyboards. So let me save you the suspense: there's no single Tampa Bay market right now. There are five, and they aren't telling the same story.

I say that not from a spreadsheet, but from working with more than 60 families so far this year. In Pinellas and Tampa, we're back to multiple-offer situations in the desirable neighborhoods. It's nowhere near the fever pitch of 2021 and 2022, but in the right pocket, it's competitive again. In Pasco and Manatee, it's the opposite. Homebuilders need your business, and the buyer's holding the cards.

That split is the whole story this month. And it's a trend, not a one-time blip. Here's what the data shows, county by county, and what it means depending on where you stand.

The Quick Read: May 2026 (Single-Family, year-over-year)

A quick translation: "months supply" is how long it would take to sell every home for sale at the current pace. Under about 5.5 months favors sellers. Above it favors buyers. Every county here is still seller-leaning on paper, but the gap between them is the real story.

If you're thinking about buying

Your leverage depends entirely on which county you shop. Two markets have genuinely tilted toward buyers, and two have tilted away.

Where you've got the most room: Pasco and Manatee. Pasco is the clear outlier in the region. Homes for sale barely moved from last year (-1.9%), months supply actually grew (+2.6%), and closed sales fell the hardest of any county (-13.8%). Translation: inventory is sitting, and sellers (especially homebuilders) are negotiating. Manatee is the only county where the median price fell year over year (down 3.8% to $460,000), and median time to contract dropped to 47 days (-9.6%). When prices soften and there's new construction competing for the same buyer, that's your window.

Where it's getting competitive again: Pinellas and Sarasota. Pinellas homes for sale dropped 23.2% and months supply fell 26.0%. Sarasota is even tighter, with homes for sale down 25.2% and months supply down a striking 33.3%, the largest drop in the region. In the desirable neighborhoods of Pinellas and Tampa, we're seeing multiple offers again. It's not 2021 chaos, but you need to come in prepared.

The move: If you want choice and negotiating power, look hard at Pasco and Manatee right now. If your heart's set on a tight Pinellas or Sarasota pocket, get your financing buttoned up before you tour. The good ones are moving.

If you're thinking about selling

For most of the region, this is a strong month to list. The playbook just changes by county, and pricing wrong is the only real risk.

Strongest seller position: Sarasota, Pinellas, Hillsborough. Sarasota sellers have the wind at their back: homes for sale down 25.2%, months supply down 33.3%, and closed sales actually up 7.2% even with less to buy. That's real demand meeting tight supply. Pinellas is close behind, with supply down 26.0% and median price up 3.5% to $476,200. Hillsborough held steady. Sales flat, price flat at $430,000, but homes for sale down 14% and homes still going under contract in 36 days.

Price with care: Manatee and Pasco. Manatee's median slipped 3.8% year over year, so last year's comps will overshoot. In Pasco, months supply is rising (+2.6%) and you're competing directly with builders, so sharp, realistic pricing out of the gate is what gets you sold. The good news in Pasco: prices are still up 2.5% and homes are going under contract faster than last year (36 days, -7.7%), so well-priced homes still move.

The move: In every county, the homes that win are priced to the current market, not last summer's headlines. A 95.8% to 97.0% list-to-sale ratio across the region tells you buyers are still paying close to ask when the price is right.

If you're not moving, but want to know what your home's worth

Your equity story this May comes down to one thing: which county your home sits in.

• Pinellas (+3.5%): the region's biggest year-over-year price gain. Median now $476,200.
• Pasco (+2.5%): still appreciating despite the softer sales pace. Median $385,000.
• Sarasota (+2.2%): steady gains on top of an already high base. Median $475,000.
• Hillsborough (flat): median held at $430,000, so your equity is holding, not sliding.
• Manatee (-3.8%): the one county that slipped. Median $460,000, down from last year.

The move: If you're in Pinellas, Pasco, or Sarasota, you likely picked up equity this year. If you're in Manatee, it's worth knowing your real number before you make any decisions based on what your neighbor's house "sold for" last year.

About the data: Single-family figures, year-over-year vs. May 2025. Sources: STAR Monthly Statistics via Stellar MLS / Suncoast Tampa Association of REALTORS® (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco), the REALTOR® Association of Sarasota and Manatee (Sarasota, Manatee), and the Florida Realtors Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA report. Released June 16, 2026. Market commentary reflects Tru Living Group's transaction experience and is not a guarantee of future results.