Tampa Bay Market Report · July 2026

Nobody Lost Value in July. But One County Is Quietly Turning Toward Buyers

By Juan Alcalá · Tru Living Group · ThatTampaLife · Published August 18, 2026

Here is the July headline nobody expected: not a single one of our five counties lost value year over year. Pinellas is up 7.8%. Sarasota is up 5.0%. Even Manatee, which was down 3.8% back in May, has climbed back into positive territory. If you have been waiting for the Tampa Bay price correction, July was not it.

But there is a second story underneath the prices, and it is the one worth your time. Four of our five counties got tighter in July. One got looser. Pasco is now the only county in the region where homes are taking longer to sell and there is more supply than a year ago, and that is a real opening if you are the person shopping there.

So the split we have been tracking all year is still here, it has just moved. Here is what the numbers say, county by county, and what it means depending on where you stand.

The Quick Read: July 2026 (Single-Family, year-over-year)

A quick translation: "months supply" is how long it would take to sell every home for sale at the current pace. Under about 5.5 months favors sellers. Above it favors buyers. Every county here is still seller-leaning on paper, but Pasco is the only one moving the other direction.

If you're thinking about buying

This month the map is simple. There is one county where the wind is at your back, and four where it is in your face.

Where you have the most room: Pasco. It is the only county in the region where months supply actually grew (4.3 months, up 7.5%), the only one where homes are taking longer to go under contract (43 days, up 10.3%), and the one with the steepest drop in closed sales (down 11.7%). Homes for sale barely budged from last year (-2.8%) while every other county's inventory shrank. Add the builders competing for the same buyer in Wesley Chapel and Land O'Lakes, and Pasco is where a patient buyer gets a deal in July.

Where it tightened up: Sarasota and Pinellas. Sarasota's months supply fell 30.4%, the sharpest drop in the region, and homes for sale are down 23.4%. Pinellas is right behind it: supply down 27.1%, inventory down 23.0%, and time to contract cut from 42 days to 34. Both markets also moved on price, up 5.0% and 7.8%. You can still buy well in either, but you cannot browse slowly.

The middle: Hillsborough and Manatee. Hillsborough barely moved on anything, which is its own kind of useful. Price flat at $430,000, time to contract flat at 34 days, inventory down a modest 7.6%. Manatee is tightening more quietly than the headlines suggest, with supply down 14.6% and sales up 11.2%, the biggest sales jump in the region.

The move: If price and negotiating room matter most, put Pasco at the top of your list this month. If you want Pinellas or Sarasota, get fully underwritten before you tour, because 34 days to contract means the good ones are gone before a slow buyer finishes thinking.

If you're thinking about selling

Four of five counties are handing sellers a better hand than they had a year ago. The exception is the one you need to hear about if you own there.

Strongest seller position: Pinellas and Sarasota. Pinellas is the standout of the month. Median price up 7.8% to $469,000, homes going under contract 19% faster, and supply down more than a quarter. Sarasota is the tightest market by supply in the region (3.9 months, down 30.4%) with price up 5.0% to $493,500. If you have been waiting for a window in either county, this is a good one.

Better than it looks: Manatee and Hillsborough. Manatee has quietly turned around. Its median was down 3.8% in May and is now up 1.0% at $495,000, with closed sales up 11.2%, the strongest sales growth of any county. Hillsborough is the steady one: flat price, flat 34-day time to contract, and 96.7% of original list price still being paid.

Price with real care: Pasco. Pasco is the only county where the clock is moving against sellers. Homes are taking 43 days to go under contract, up from 39, supply is up 7.5%, and closed sales fell 11.7%. Prices are still up slightly (+0.8% to $390,000), so the equity is there, but you are competing with builders who can buy down a rate and you cannot. Sharp pricing on day one is the whole game here.

The move: Across the region, sellers are still getting 94.2% to 96.7% of original list price. That number tells you buyers will pay close to ask when the ask is honest, and will walk when it is not.

If you're not moving, but want to know what your home's worth

July was the rare month where the answer is good news everywhere. Every county held or gained.

• Pinellas (+7.8%): the region's biggest gain by a wide margin. Median now $469,000.
• Sarasota (+5.0%): and now the highest median in the region at $493,500.
• Manatee (+1.0%): back in positive territory after slipping in the spring. Median $495,000.
• Pasco (+0.8%): still gaining, even with the softest sales pace in the region. Median $390,000.
• Hillsborough (flat): median held at $430,000 for the third straight report. Holding, not sliding.

The move: If you own in Pinellas or Sarasota, your number moved enough this year that a two-year-old estimate is simply wrong. Worth getting a current one even if you have no plans to move.

About the data: Single-family figures, year-over-year vs. July 2025. Sources: STAR Monthly Statistics via Stellar MLS / Suncoast Tampa Association of REALTORS® (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco), the REALTOR® Association of Sarasota and Manatee (Sarasota, Manatee), and the Florida Realtors Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA report. Released August 17, 2026. Market commentary reflects Tru Living Group's transaction experience and is not a guarantee of future results.